Luke Fenton-Glynn

Probabilistic Actual Causation

Actual (token) causes - e.g. Suzy's being exposed to asbestos - often bring about their effects - e.g. Suzy's suffering mesothelioma - probabilistically. Yet cases of probabilistic pre-emption, among others, illustrate the fact that causes do not always raise the probability of their effects, and also that an event may raise the probability of another event which is not its effect. I use probabilistic causal models to develop a more nuanced account of the relation between actual causation and probability.

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